Guest comment: Iran conflict a threat to Maui

A veteran housing specialist with the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, Malcolm Findley retired to Maui in 2001 where he has served on a number of county boards, and as a consumer protection volunteer for the AARP and state Office on Aging, advising Maui residents on protecting themselves from identity theft and Medicare fraud. With a bachelor's in political science and master's in public administration, he keeps himself versant with national and international affairs -- and potential impacts of global events on local communities.

This commentary details reasons for his fear that state and county agencies and utilities are not prepared for severe disruption of fuel supplies for Maui from a conflict involving Iran and the United States.

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Because Iran has often threatened Israel and refused to give up its potential nuclear weapons program, the prospect of war with Iran involving both Israel and the United States has long been discussed.  Events have reached a point that it is now not a question of IF war will occur, but WHEN.  In fact, the Obama administration recently warned Iran that continuing their nuclear weapons program or blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be "red lines" triggering a U.S. attack.  Israeli leaders are now actively planning to attack Iran this spring. 

Many Americans believe war with Iran would end quickly following U.S./Israeli air strikes on their nuclear capability.  This is highly unlikely given Iran's size, strategic location, military capacity and defenses.  Once a war starts, it could be prolonged and difficult with many unforeseen consequences e.g. fighting spreading over the entire Middle East.

The threat has been documented in many recent articles including:

• "What Would War With Iran Look Like?", article by Jeffery White in The American Interest, July/August 2011.

• “ Showdown over the Strait of Hormuz -- What would happen if the strait were closed?", The Week 2/3/12.

• “Can Israel Stop Iran's Nuke Effort? --Too many targets, Too much bedrock", Time 2/6/12 (requires subscription).  

Given Maui's 90 percent dependence on imported oil to power its economy, the consequences of war with Iran by either Israel or the U.S. will be dire.  It is expected that oil prices could quickly rise to $200 a barrel.  With gasoline costs on Maui historically near the highest in the nation, the price of regular here could reach $15 per gallon. 

A similar impact would be felt in the cost of electricity. Maui's tourism industry would collapse as a result of a spike in cost of aviation fuel and the adverse impact on the world economy.  Thus, it seems likely that all aspects of Maui's isolated and oil dependent economy would be devastated.                                                             

In light of the above circumstances, proactive preliminary steps should be taken now to prepare for the "Collateral Damage" of war with Iran.  Here are some suggestions: 

1. Elected officials should immediately confirm that Hawaii has priority access to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and start the process required to have needed fuel supplies shipped to Maui quickly. 

2.  An emergency planning  conference should be held that would include all key island decision makers and concerned parties -- MECO/HECO, elected officials, Chamber of Commerce and other major business leaders, The Maui News, Hawaiian Airlines, Young Brothers, health care providers, churches, nonprofits and and community organizations such as MEO.

3. Preliminary planning by law enforcement and public safety personnel to address potential social unrest.

4. Planning coordinated by the county for rationing/ conservation of food and fuel e.g. enhanced public transport.

5. Preparations for emergency loans to businesses and families that are adversely impacted.

6. Enhanced morale building through public communications that convey timely and accurate information on what is being done.

7. Procedures for special aid to seniors as well as the needy and destitute. 

In my continuing study of history, economics, politics and current events I try to anticipate changes that could impact my life and those around me.  For the past several years I have focused on the consequences of war with Iran, particularly its possible impact on Maui.

As chair of the Energy Subcommittee of the county's Cost of Government Commission several years ago, I posed the following Iran-related questions to MECO representatives:                                                                         

• Does MECO have a short range plan (i.e. 30 to 60 days) to address a major spike in oil cost (e.g. $200 a barrel) and/or curtailment of oil supply resulting from an "international incident" (e.g. war in the Persian Gulf region)?

• There is an act of Congress that grants Hawaii "priority access" to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the event of a major curtailment of oil supply.  How would you envision this process working to assure timely and continued delivery?

• In the event of a total shut down of shipments to Maui, how long would MECO's SPR storage last?                                                                                

• Are there agreements between MECO and HECO or the state to add to Maui's reserves in the event of an emergency?   

MECO's responses to these questions at the time, while appreciated, provided little indication of either their planning or awareness of actions that might be taken.   MECO's answers can be found in Energy Exhibit 20 of the Commission's March 31, 2010, Annual Report.  Hopefully, MECO has or is now in the process of addressing these issues.

Iran is a very large country of some 80 million people that controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz.  Some 20 percent of the world's oil passes through this narrow channel from the Persian Gulf.  The U.S. would be unable to prevent Iran from using mines and other measures to quickly block the channel and disrupt oil shipments.

With disruption inevitable, Hawaii officials need to prepare now to deal with the impact.

--- Malcolm Findley